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, by William L. Silber
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Product details
File Size: 3160 KB
Print Length: 464 pages
Publisher: Bloomsbury Press; 1 edition (September 4, 2012)
Publication Date: September 4, 2012
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B008RYD4V8
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#598,449 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
Rather than a biography, this book is a blow-by-blow account of Volcker's life as a public servant. It is truly gripping. If you enjoyed books like "Too Big to Fail" and "Lords of Finance" or even "Barbarians at the Gate," beware of picking it up, you will not rest until you have finished it.I sure couldn't.While I was at it, I managed to pick up some international economic history. I already knew, for example, that by the end of the sixties the US was running out of gold to stand behind the convertibility of the dollar, because at its parities with America's trading partners and particularly the Deutschemark, people in the US were finding it irresistible to buy VW Beetles instead of Buicks. But I had no idea that it was Volcker's idea to rattle France and Germany with the threat of a free-float to force the 15% devaluation of the dollar which he deemed adequate to stop the run on the Treasury's gold. Or that the 8% devaluation that was negotiated as a compromise (with Valery Giscard d'Estaing and Helmut Schmidt, no less) was the beginning of the end for Bretton Woods because it caused tremendous instability while proving inadequate to achieve its primary goal. Or that the stab in the back came from the UK! Volcker basically was the midwife for the end of Bretton Woods, but in his heart he wanted it to continue. That's what the book alleges, at any rate, and I have every reason to believe it.Somehow, the author, who is clearly in Volcker's thrall, deems this to have been a success. Regardless, you cannot helping falling for Volcker too. The principal theme of the book is that Volcker was a tireless, persistent and highly principled pragmatist. The first example, which I mention above, is probably the only questionable example, the rest are good enough for me.Further down in the book you learn how a less principled pragmatist, Nixon, forced the Fed to keep rates inappropriately low so he could win the 1972 election, how Volcker's most famous policy decision, a surprise change of focus to the money supply (as opposed to interest rates) was designed to combat the expectations of ever-rising inflation, how the policy famously won the day, how it cost Carter his presidency, how Reagan almost failed to reappoint Volcker and how James Baker undermined him. Volcker also gets credit for the now forgotten Gramm-Rudman-Hollings legislation, which kind of, sort of put a bit of a break on government spending. And he actually comes under criticism for planting the seeds of "too big to fail" when Continental Illinois was saved. The Volcker rule gets a chapter too, and the author tells us how he played a role, stuff that simply does not fit in here, but hey...You also find out a hell of a lot about the people involved. How much Volcker respected Martin, how much he learned from Connally, how he played Kissinger, how friendly he was with Burns, how he sparred with Friedman, what tattoo can be found where on George Schultz's body. You can't help marvel at how little Volcker was prepared to earn relative to what he could have done, how much his family had to sacrifice as a result, and you can't help wonder where we'd be now if he had not been succeeded by Alan Greenspan.Overall, this is a tremendous book. You get the horse's mouth account of what was comfortably the Fed's finest hour, and that alone warrants a five star rating. If that leaves you a bit despondent about where we find ourselves today, that's probably also part of the author's intention.Before I forget, the Paul Volcker described in the book shall be reading this. Hi there, Paul, you rock!
My reaction to Silber's book is undoubtedly distorted by my own experience. I am aged 63 years, most of my working life in or near fixed-income markets, daily watching the Fed; one of its greatest admirers, and also an admirer of Mr. Volcker. "Volcker" has some limited use to an amateur audience, but is too shallow even there, a kind of Classic Comics version of Fed history, or an as-told-by sports biography. Its adulation of Mr. Volcker is not so bad: Mr. Volcker is as unassuming and self-deprecating as any person who has lived an important public life. Still, Silber's only significant source work is Mr. Volcker himself. We are living through a very difficult time, a predicament without precedent, and thus without empirical guideposts. There have been thousands of similar financial crises, but nothing of this scale, nor after a period of such extraordinary computer-assisted financial innovation. Central banks everywhere are struggling to invent apropriate policy while critics accuse them of everything from money-printing and say they should shut down altogether to accusation of inaction and insufficient imagination. This book fails to elucidate, especially for non-professional readers better served by "Lords of Finance" and "Secrets of the Temple." Silber's book does have a few pages of useful anecdotes (Barbara's story, Reagan's diary), but repeated awful stretches. Mr. Volcker (as all central bankers) is annoyed by "speculators" who refuse to behave in ways comfortable for central bankers. Page 26 repeats "speculators" ten times in two paragraphs. The book is a useful financial history skim, but the same depth could be found in a Wiki entry. In several spots Silber has Volcker simultaneously in favor of and opposed to devaluation, and Silber is repeatedly on both sides of "monetarism" as actual strategy and cover story. Perhaps the one most useful anecdote (earning the second star here), shining light on the Volcker interior: his refusal to allow Sargent Shriver to bring a gold medal he had been awarded in Europe into the US; an exception had been made for Olympic medals, but not this one. Mr. Volcker's great strengths -- unbending courage and integrity -- from time to time resulted in rigidity, rules for rules' sake, possibly including today's "Volcker Rule." A short professional critique makes three points. How was it possible to write this history without a single mention of oil as a component of the Great Inflation, and how the Fed then or in the future might better deal with similar "price shocks"? Or to fail to explain to any audience the distinction between price shock and morphing into a wage-price spiral? How was it possible to leave out any mention of the savings and loan industry? Mr. Volcker's ultra-high-rate strategy in 1979 threw the entire $3 trillion (constant dollars) industry over the side without any plan at all, callous and narrow policy. Subsequent policy error (mostly Reagan and Congress) later made S&Ls all the worse (still on Mr. Volcker's watch), but 75% of 7,000 S&Ls were insolvent at Mr. Volcker's hand alone by 1982. A third significant omission involves Mr. Volcker's embarassing and institution-damaging last year as Chairman; Mr. Silber offers nothing but Mr. Volcker's version and some newspaper clippings. The Fed is a unique American institution, a star chamber as important as the Supreme Court but a recent invention of Congress, its functions nowhere in the Constitution, and its members with no guide as powerful and reliable as stare decisis. Yet, rather frequently and inescapably the economic future of this country rests upon Fed governors. Part of Mr. Silber's struggle to find depth is traceable to Mr. Volcker still treating Fed operations 30 years ago as state secrets. Mr. Volcker has written no memoir (and better Mr. Greenspan had not written his self-serving volume). I hope that first-class historians will one day, while the actors are still alive, dig at the tale of Volcker's Fed (and the others) as studies in leadership and a desperately important aspect of democratic government.
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